A full read of EssilorLuxottica’s accounts from 2021 to 2023, ending in an equity valuation addressed to the board. The statements are reformulated to split operating and financing items, and profitability is broken down on three levels, from ROCE and RNOA to margins and turnovers. Credit risk is scored with Altman’s Z (3.44, in the safe zone) and a logit model. Then come the multiples and a discounted cash flow.

The DCF shows how much the answer rests on one assumption. With a WACC around 7.7%, the value follows the growth rate. At 2%, the ECB’s inflation rate, it gives €113 a share and a sell. At 5.4%, an average of past and expected growth, it gives €336 and a buy. The market price was €202. Every step is in the spreadsheet.